Evaluation and Control Warning Flag 2 – Absence of Evidence as Evidence of Absence

Description

When examining organizational performance, assessors too often fall into the trap of concluding that the absence of adverse outcomes indicates a lack of underlying performance issues. This is an evidential fallacy. Many organizational shortfalls exist without causing consequential outcomes for reasons of redundant barrier prevention, lack of recognition, or simply blind dumb luck. The lack of a noticeable consequence does not necessarily equate to an absence of an issue; it simply means that the problem itself, up until the point of examination, has not manifested itself in a substantial outcome.

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