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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Black swan events are by definition unpredictable, catastrophic, and retrospectively believed to have been fully predictable and by extension less impactful. About the Reference In his book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb illustrates the […]
It’s the age old question of which is more valuable, knowledge or experience. Those arguing for experience rightfully suggest that ‘the numbers’ can be deceiving and that the nuances of a given circumstance – unaccounted for by broadly applicable models and high-level, quantitative facts – often dictate the best course of action. Those favoring knowledge would argue that no two situations are exactly alike and that the underlying nuanced conditions providing success in the past likely went unrecognized and represent the very differences that will cause an experienced-based decision to go awry. The question is, Who is right? – those favoring knowledge or those favoring experience? Our answer is neither and both. We believe the best decisions are made using a well-proportioned blend of both knowledge and experience.
“Adversity introduces a man to himself.” Anonymous
Leaders face the difficult challenge of selecting those few operational activities their organization will pursue from the multitude that are proposed every planning cycle. Collectively, these activities define the company; its culture, its direction, and ultimately its success or failure. Selecting those activities the organization engages in requires a degree of both art and science. […]
Every decision made represents a risk to the organization; some large, others small; some immediate, others latent; some positive, others adverse. Regardless of the impact, it is desirable to have each decision bring optimal benefit to the organization. Achieving these frequent, repeatable, and positive results requires a mechanism to drive consistency in decision-making; consistency that is only achieved through established procedures on which decision-makers are trained and against which performance is evaluated and acceptable behaviors reinforced.
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